Friday, May 7, 2021

C19 Update India

From CM in India: As you know India is totally gripped by the second wave of Corona. People are speculating about when the third wave will hit us and how deadly it will be. I shall be personally thankful to you if you can run your ANN prediction for India data.

Dear CM: I ran the best neural network I have come up with to no avail. With an accuracy target of 2500 it took 49 iterations and still did not fit the data in any meaningful way. As you probably know, over the course of C19 my work on neural nets only managed to confirm what experienced NN workers have long known -- neural nets are not very good at predicting outside of the given data. So the NN was a flop. But, I did manage to get a decent fit on my LG3 model. This is a sum of three lognormal functions with 12 free parameters used to fit the data. Like all data fitting approaches, the key is choice of starting parameter values. Anyway, here is the India C19 deaths plot fit to my LG3 model. On the current steep trajectory, we can expect the predicted peak location and value to change rapidly with new data points. Even so, it looks like difficult times ahead for my many friends in India.